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Crude Oil Futures Technical Blog

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Friday 11 May 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
61.30
High
62.50
Low
60.75
Close
62.37
Change
+0.44
Percent
+0.7%
Medium-term Opinion: Bearish
      Crude recovered after last weeks big drop, and prices closed up. Although we are sticking with our bearish outlook, we note that the week ended at the top of the range. We remain cautiously bearish.
Friday 11 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
62.35
High
62.45
Low
61.70
Close
62.37
Change
+0.56
Percent
+0.9%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Crude continues to trend slightly upwards, but we are not concerned about our bearish outlook, particularly in light of today's inside trading day. We remain neutral.
Thursday 10 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
62.02
High
62.50
Low
61.40
Close
61.81
Change
+0.26
Percent
+0.4%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Crude moved slightly higher on Thursday, but we appear to be in a period of consolidation and we would not be surprised if prices turned south next week. We remain bearish.
Wednesday 09 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
62.25
High
62.30
Low
60.75
Close
61.55
Change
-0.71
Percent
-1.1%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Crude moved lower on Wednesday, unable to capitalize off Tuesday's gains. The failure at the 4-day moving average is good news for the bears, and we remain bearish.
No report issued on 08 May
Monday 07 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
61.30
High
61.70
Low
60.90
Close
61.47
Change
-0.46
Percent
-0.7%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Crude moved lower on Monday, gapping lower at the start of the day but recouperating a bit in the afternoon. With the stochastic reaching very oversold levels it is likely that the 60.03 level will hold, but we remain bearish. Prices are down 2.21 since our bearish declaration on 02 May.
Friday 04 May 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
66.40
High
66.60
Low
61.60
Close
61.93
Change
-4.53
Percent
-6.8%
Medium-term Opinion Changed to Bearish
      Crude fell sharply this week, down over $4/bbl. With the failure of the trend channel, and the turning of the stochastics, we have changed our medium-term opinion to bearish. There is little support on the chart before 54.57.
Friday 04 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
63.10
High
63.40
Low
61.60
Close
61.93
Change
-1.26
Percent
-2.0%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Crude fell again on Friday, and it looks as if the end of the recent uptrend has ended. Although the stochastics are getting oversold which may put a pause in the reaction lower, we look for prices to gravitate towards the next support level of 60.03. We remain bearish.
Thursday 03 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
63.55
High
63.55
Low
62.75
Close
63.19
Change
-0.49
Percent
-0.8%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Crude fell lower on Thursday, and is testing the support level at 62.43-62.60. We remain neutral, but note that the stochastics have moved sharply lower.
Wednesday 02 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.35
High
65.50
Low
63.05
Close
63.68
Change
-0.72
Percent
-1.1%
Near-term Opinion Changed to Bearish
      Crude broke below the trendline on Wednesday, and we have thus changed our opinion to bearish. It appears we have a head-and-shoulders formation, where the third wave up was unable to supercede the second wave up. Based on this formation, we are estimating a price move down to at least 55.21.
Tuesday 01 May 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
65.50
High
66.15
Low
64.15
Close
64.40
Change
-1.31
Percent
-2.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude fell sharply on Tuesday, down 2%, and tested the trendline at the end of the session. With an overbought stochastic, we will jump on the bearish bandwagon should we get a close below 64.43 tomorrow.
Monday 30 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
66.40
High
66.60
Low
65.60
Close
65.71
Change
-0.75
Percent
-1.1%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude fell lower on Monday, but moved within the trading range of Friday's activity. We remain neutral, but note that the stochastics have recovered to high levels while prices have barely budged off the trendline, which indicates a potential opportunity for the bears.
Friday 27 April 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
64.40
High
66.70
Low
64.10
Close
66.46
Change
+2.35
Percent
+3.7%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved higher this week, bouncing off the lower trendline and maintain its move higher. Although we have no reason to expect prices to move out of the trend channel, w would expect strong resistance at 69.45. We remain neutral.
Friday 27 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.80
High
66.70
Low
64.75
Close
66.46
Change
+1.40
Percent
+2.2%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      A big up day for crude, and prices have been bouncing around each day this week, with big swings each day. The stochastics are getting overbought, and if the bears can keep prices from surpassing 67.95 they may be able to break the trend. Until then, we remain neutral.
Thursday 26 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
65.35
High
66.40
Low
64.90
Close
65.06
Change
-0.78
Percent
-1.2%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved higher in the morning, but fell Thursday afternoon to close down on the day. We may have a reversal pattern, and if the bears can build some momentum there is a chance to move out of the recent period of consolidation. We remain neutral.
Wednesday 25 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.85
High
65.90
Low
64.65
Close
65.84
Change
+1.26
Percent
+2.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      All of Tuesday's losses were recouped on Wednesday as prices bounced back higher. We appear to be in a consolidation period with traders trapped between the rising trendline and the resistance level of 66.01. We remain neutral.
Tuesday 24 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
65.95
High
66.25
Low
64.10
Close
64.58
Change
-1.31
Percent
-2.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Almost all of Monday's gains were erased on Tuesday, as crude fell 2%. If the bears can capitalize on Tuesday's turnaround, the trendline may be vulnerable, especially as the stochastics have recovered to mid-level. We remain neutral, but look to Wednesday to see if the bears have the strength to end this recent uptrend.
Monday 23 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.40
High
65.93
Low
64.10
Close
65.89
Change
+1.78
Percent
+2.8%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      A big up day for crude on Monday, with prices soaring 2.8%. With this, the strength of the trendline is confirmed as prices could not move lower. From here, the recent high of 67.95 becomes an important resistance level. We remain neutral.
Friday 20 April 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
65.00
High
65.75
Low
63.00
Close
64.11
Change
-0.77
Percent
-1.2%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved lower this week, and seems to be gravitating towards the bottom end of the range. With the stochastics on the high side, there may be the chance that prices will break lower, whereby we would change our opinion to bearish.
Friday 20 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
63.40
High
64.25
Low
63.15
Close
64.11
Change
+0.79
Percent
+1.2%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved higher on Friday, bouncing off the rising trendline. With the stochastics at oversold levels, we would expect prices to move higher next week, perhaps testing the week high of 65.75. We remain neutral.
Thursday 19 April 2007, June Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.05
High
64.10
Low
63.00
Close
63.32
Change
-1.06
Percent
-1.6%
We have switched to the June contract.
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude slid sharply today, falling out of its recent trading range and testing the rising trendline. A penetration of the trendline would result in a head-and-shoulders formation. We remain neutral, but may switch to a bearish position on Friday.
Wednesday 18 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
62.90
High
63.35
Low
62.75
Close
63.13
Change
+0.03
Percent
+0.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved in a narrow band on Wednesday, with a lower range but closing up just marginally. We remain neutral.
Tuesday 17 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.30
High
64.50
Low
63.05
Close
63.10
Change
-0.51
Percent
-0.8%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude closed slightly lower on Tuesday, but the bigger story was the failure to close higher after remaining in positive territory throughout the day. We may have another reversal pattern on the chart, and prices may fall again on Wednesday. For now, we remain neutral, but we may move to a bearish position if the trendline falls.
Monday 16 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
63.75
High
63.90
Low
62.58
Close
63.61
Change
-0.02
Percent
-0.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved lower throughout most of Monday but closed down only two cents at settlement. We continue to see a very gradual uptrend held up by the trendline now at 61.54. We remain neutral.
Friday 13 April 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
63.55
High
64.35
Low
61.35
Close
63.63
Change
-0.65
Percent
-1.0%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude prices fell during much of the week, but recovered to close down only slightly. The pattern on the chart indicates that we may have a flag formation, and the high stochastic level indicates that a move below the trendline now at 61.09 could be strong. We will move to a bearish position if we get a weekly close below the trendline.
Friday 13 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.00
High
64.35
Low
63.50
Close
63.63
Change
-0.22
Percent
-0.3%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude prices fell on Friday, unable to close above the resistance level of 63.98, which may leave a head-and-shoulder pattern on the chart. Today's higher high but lower close may pull prices down to the trendline now at 61.40, but we will not move to a bearish position until this trendline is penetrated.
Thursday 12 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
62.60
High
63.90
Low
62.60
Close
63.85
Change
+1.84
Percent
+3.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      A big up day for crude on Thursday, and we have drawn a trendline on the chart. With the stochastics oversold and the trendline holding, we would look for prices to gravitate towards the recent high of 66.70. For now, we remain neutral.
Wednesday 11 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
61.95
High
62.55
Low
61.55
Close
62.01
Change
+0.12
Percent
+0.2%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Another narrow day for crude, with prices edging up only slightly. It appears that the 61.18 support level may hold, and with the stochastics moving into oversold territory, consolidation may continue. We remain neutral.
Tuesday 10 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
61.55
High
62.25
Low
61.50
Close
61.89
Change
+0.38
Percent
+0.6%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      After Monday's big drop, we ended up with an inside trading day, which is not unusual. We remain neutral, but would not be surprised to see prices gravitate towards the support level of 58.78.
Monday 09 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
63.55
High
63.95
Low
61.35
Close
61.51
Change
-2.77
Percent
-4.3%
Near-term Opinion Changed to Neutral
      Crude fell sharply on Monday, down over 4%. We would look for prices to gravitate towards the support level of 58.80. With a close below 63.98, we have abandonned our bullish opinion for a loss.
No report filed 05Apr
Wednesday 04 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
64.90
High
65.00
Low
63.60
Close
64.38
Change
-0.26
Percent
-0.4%
Near-term Opinion: Bullish
      Crude moved lower again, and our bullish opinion is threatened. We will abandon our position if we get a close below 63.98, indicating that the breakout has failed.
Tuesday 03 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
65.10
High
65.20
Low
64.00
Close
64.64
Change
-1.30
Percent
-2.0%
Near-term Opinion: Bullish
      Crude fell 2% on Tuesday and nearly moved below the support level of 63.98 which would indicate that we should abandon our bullish position. We will be ready to move out of our long position on Wednesday at a loss, but may jump on the bearish position if prices gap lower. This would leave a big island gap on the chart, and with overbought stochastics many signs would point towards movement down to at least 58.80
Monday 02 April 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open
65.70
High
66.65
Low
65.25
Close
65.94
Change
+0.07
Percent
+0.1%
Near-term Opinion: Bullish
      Prices traded sideways on Monday, closing up only marginally. Based on the breakout above the 63.98 level last week, we maintain our bullish reading, but with the stall in the price rise and very high stochastic level, we will be ready to abandon ship if prices get below 63.98 this week.