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Crude Oil Futures Technical Blog

March 2007 Archive

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Friday 30 March 2007, Weekly Chart
Open	62.68	High	66.70	Low	62.30	Close	65.87	Change	+3.59	Percent	+5.8%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral       A big up week for crude, with prices up over 5%. Despite recent gains, there is no pattern on the chart that is clear to the eye, and thus we remain neutral for now. The 68.20 resistance level could be important, so we will watch that level closely.
Friday 30 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	66.30	High	66.70	Low	65.55	Close	65.87	Change	-0.16	Percent	-0.2%
Near-term Opinion: Bullish       Crude prices retreated on Friday, leaving a possible reversal pattern on the chart. We remain bullish but will abandon this position if prices close below the 63.98 support level.
Thursday 29 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	64.30	High	66.50	Low	64.25	Close	66.03	Change	+1.95	Percent	+3.0%
Near-term Opinion Changed to Bullish       Based on today's strong showing, we are changing our opinion to bullish. Prices moved sharply higher, and there is little resistance left on the chart until 68.20. We will remain bullish until prices close below the 9-day moving average, or until the gap left on the chart at 63.30 is closed.
Wednesday 28 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	64.10	High	64.85	Low	63.70	Close	64.08	Change	+1.15	Percent	+1.8%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude popped sharply higher on Wednesday, gapping higher on the opening and propelling beyond the relatively important resistance level of 63.98. A confirmation of today's activity with a higher high and close tomorrow would put us in a bullish mood. However, with the relatively weak close on the day, there is a possibility that prices may gap lower on Thursday, which would result in an island gap. This would put us in a bearish mood, and the island, coupled with the overbought stochastics, would lead us to assume prices would move all the way back down to the support level of 58.78. Thursday will likely be an important day.
Tuesday 27 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	62.75	High	63.04	Low	62.30	Close	62.93	Change	+0.02	Percent	+0.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude moved lower in the morning but recovered in the afternoon to close about even with Monday. We continue to find ourselves in a sideways trend between 58.81 and 63.88, and with the stochastics relatively overbought we would be surprised to see a breakout on the upside anytime soon. A more likely scenario would be for prices to gravitate back to the lower end and test 58.81 again.
No report filed 26Mar
Friday 23 March 2007, Weekly Chart
Open	59.40	High	62.60	Low	59.15	Close	62.28	Change	+2.70	Percent	+4.5%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude bounced back this week, recovering all of last week's losses to close above all three moving averages. we appear to be in a consolidation phase, and we remain neutral.
Friday 23 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	62.00	High	62.60	Low	61.85	Close	62.28	Change	+0.59	Percent	+1.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude gapped higher again on Friday, propelling prices higher after Thursday's strong close. We remain neutral as long as prices stay between the support level of 58.80 and the resistance level of 63.88, both of which should be difficult to cross.
Thursday 22 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	60.55	High	61.78	Low	60.45	Close	61.69	Change	+2.08	Percent	+3.5%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       After a series of days in a tight range, crude popped higher on Thursday and closed up over $2/bbl. With a strong close and the inability to get below the support level of 58.78-58.80, we would expect prices to move higher and test the resistance level of 63.88. We remain neutral.
Wednesday 21 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	59.65	High	59.85	Low	59.23	Close	59.61	Change	+0.36	Percent	+0.6%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       An inside trading day for crude on Wednesday, with the high lower than yesterday's high and the low higher than yesterday's low. This would normally be an insignificant day, more of the same, but prices did close above the 4-day moving average, and if prices are going to move in one direction or another we would lean to higher prices as the 58.80 support level should be relatively strong. Prices may get beyond this point, but right now the stochastics are oversold, and thus we remain neutral.
Tuesday 20 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	59.90	High	60.15	Low	59.15	Close	59.25	Change	-0.45	Percent	-0.8%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude moved lower again on Tuesday, and appears to be approaching a somewhat important squeeze in prices. Over the last sessions, prices have been kept down by the 4-day moving average, but there is likely to be some strong support at 58.76, the recent low from 15Feb. We remain neutral, but will switch to a bearish view should prices close below 58.76, which may result in a double-top formation. However, with the stochastics oversold, we would expect prices to move higher.
No report filed 19Mar
Friday 16 March 2007, Weekly Chart
Open	60.95	High	61.75	Low	58.50	Close	59.58	Change	-2.19	Percent	-3.5%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral, leaning bearish       Crude's failure to remain about the 40-week moving average was confirmed this week, with prices falling significantly. With a recovered stochastic, we would expect prices to gravitate lower and perhaps test the support level of the recent low of 53.32.
Friday 16 March 2007, May Contract, Daily Chart
Open	60.15	High	61.00	Low	58.50	Close	59.58	Change	-0.38	Percent	-0.6%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude moved over a wide trading range on Friday, but closed down only slightly. The bears did, however, fail to get below the recent support level of 58.78, and may find this difficult with stochastics oversold. We remain neutral until prices close below this level.
No reports filed 06Mar-15Mar
Monday 05 March 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open	60.50	High	60.75	Low	59.60	Close	60.07	Change	-1.57	Percent	-2.5%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude gapped lower on the opening and closed down 2.5% on the day. We may have a double-top formation in the works, and will change our opinion to bearish if prices get below the support level of 57.20. We remain neutral.
Friday 02 March 2007, Weekly Chart
Open	61.10	High	62.40	Low	60.10	Close	61.64	Change	+0.50	Percent	+0.8%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude moved higher this week, and managed to close above the 40-week moving average, which is a strong indication that the recent sharp downturn is over. Until we see a clear future movement on the charts, we remain neutral.
Friday 02 March 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open	62.00	High	62.30	Low	61.35	Close	61.64	Change	-0.36	Percent	-0.6%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       An inside trading day for crude, as trading remains in a narrow band. Although the stochastics are definitely overbought, which may hint at a future move down, we remain neutral.
Thursday 01 March 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open	61.80	High	62.40	Low	60.80	Close	62.00	Change	+0.21	Percent	+0.3%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral       Crude moved slightly higher on Thursday, and has been edging slightly higher in a tight trading range over the past week. Although the stochastics are overbought, there is no strong resistance, and we remain neutral as no obvious trading pattern is forming on the chart.
No reports filed 22Feb-28Feb