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November 2006 Archive

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Thursday 30 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
62.95
High
63.80
Low
62.70
Close
63.13
Change
+0.67
Percent
+1.1%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Trading gapped higher on the opening, but failed to close above the resistance level of 63.25. As prices closed in the bottom half of the day's range, and as the stochastics are reaching higher levels, we may have an opportunity for short-term bears to enter the market.
      If prices gap lower on Friday, we will have an island gap, which is a relatively reliable reversal indicator. Even without the gap, if prices end tomorrow with a lower range, short-term shorts may wish to enter with a stop out above today's high of 63.80. Either way, tomorrow's activity could be critical for the near-term trend of the chart
Wednesday 29 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
61.25
High
62.55
Low
61.20
Close
62.46
Change
+1.47
Percent
+2.4%
Near-term Opinion Changed to Neutral
      Prices moved sharply higher out of the trading range on Wednesday, and we are officially abadonning our bearish position.
      The next critical juncture is the resistance level at 63.25. If prices pass through this level we may change our position to bullish, although a more likely scenario would be for prices to hold there and trend betwen the recent low of 57.80 and 63.25
Tuesday 28 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
60.75
High
61.20
Low
60.20
Close
60.99
Change
+0.67
Percent
+1.1%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Price moved higher again on Tuesday, closing above the 18-day moving average. However, we have decided to maintain our bearish opinion until prices close above the trend line, which today ended at 61.90. Because this trend has been in place for a while, there is probably some positioning of sells at this level, based on the assumption that prices will trend down again, so we'll hold our position for now.
Monday 27 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.70
High
60.36
Low
59.55
Close
60.32
Change
+1.08
Percent
+1.8%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      The recent consolidation continued, with prices again moving sideways. However, prices did close at the top of the range, and we may have to abandon our bearish position if prices close above the 18-day moving average, which today finished at 60.48. Some traders may, however, wish to stick with their short positions until prices break above the trend channel.
Wednesday 22 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
60.15
High
60.35
Low
58.40
Close
59.24
Change
-0.93
Percent
-1.5%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      The bulls were unable to capitalize on Tuesday's big gains, and prices fell back lower again. We see this as confirmation of the weakness on the part of the bulls.
      We are maintaining our bearish position until prices get above the 18-day moving average, which today ended at 60.48, or above the upper level of the trend channel, which today closed at 62.07.
Tuesday 21 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.05
High
60.40
Low
59.00
Close
60.17
Change
+1.37
Percent
+2.3%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      A big day for the bulls on Tuesday, with prices gapping higher at the outset and maintaining a strong finish all the way through the close of trading. Prices closed up over 2% for the day.
      We are, however, maintaining our bearish position until prices get above the 18-day moving average, which today ended at 60.67, or above, the upper level of the trend channel, which today closed at 62.15.
Monday 20 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.40
High
58.85
Low
58.00
Close
58.80
Change
-0.17
Percent
-0.3%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      Monday saw an inside trading day, with prices within the range of Friday's activity. The day's activity could give hope to both the bulls and the bears. The bulls could see the close at the top of the day's range as signs that things are turning around. The bears could see the fact that Friday's high close did not result in a higher trading day as proof that the bears are firmly in control.
      We are maintaining our bearish position until prices get above the 18-day moving average, which today was ended at 60.79, or above, the upper level of the trend channel, which today closed at 62.23.
Friday 17 November 2006, Weekly Chart
Open
60.65
High
61.40
Low
57.80
Close
58.97
Change
-2.57
Percent
-4.2%
Medium-term Opinion: Bearish
      Trading moved sharply lower during the week, continuing the downtrend that has been in place for many weeks. The move higher last week could not be sustained.
      Our bearish position will remain in place until prices get above the 40-week moving average, which today finished at 69.15.
Friday 17 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.46
High
59.00
Low
57.80
Close
58.97
Change
+0.40
Percent
+0.7%
Near-term Opinion: Bearish
      After the large movement on Thursday, prices moved lower on Friday but closed higher on the day. The resulting pattern on the chart could be seen as a reversal pattern. A possible scenario is for prices to move higher, back to the top side of the falling trend channel.
      With trading falling out of the recent trading paterns, we are changing our opinion to bearish, although some traders may wish to confirm with a close below the trend line of 58.49.
Thursday 16 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
61.00
High
61.40
Low
58.45
Close
58.57
Change
-2.15
Percent
-3.5%
Near-term Opinion Changed to Bearish
      Crude prices fell sharply on Thursday, down over $2/bbl, and slipping below the recent support level of 60.10 and the very important psychological support level of 60.00.
      With trading falling out of the recent trading paterns, we are changing our opinion to bearish, although some traders may wish to confirm with a close below the trend line of 58.49.
Wednesday 15 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
60.40
High
61.13
Low
60.40
Close
60.72
Change
+0.54
Percent
+0.9%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Another day of consolidation for crude, although the trading range appears to be tightening, and we may be seeing the development of a triangle formation.
      Until trading moves out of the current range between 58.95 and 63.60, our opinion will remain neutral.
Tuesday 14 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
60.80
High
61.10
Low
60.10
Close
60.18
Change
-0.41
Percent
-0.7%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      A down day for crude on Tuesday, although for the most part a day of consolidation, with prices trapped between the moving average and the support level of 60.05.
      Until trading moves out of the current range between 58.95 and 63.60, our opinion will remain neutral.
Monday 13 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
60.65
High
61.25
Low
60.25
Close
60.59
Change
-0.95
Percent
-1.5%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude gapped lower on Monday, possibly a reaction from the sharp move lower on Friday, and closed down on the day. With the stochastics at relatively high levels, we would not be surprised to see prices move down to at least the recent resistance level of 58.95.
      Until trading moves out of the current range between 58.95 and 63.60, our opinion will remain neutral.
Friday 10 November 2006, Weekly Chart
Open
61.20
High
63.25
Low
60.80
Close
61.54
Change
+0.50
Percent
+0.8%
Medium-term Opinion: Bearish
      Although trading moved higher during the week, the bulls were unable to get prices above either the 13-week or 26-week moving averages. With trading closing near the bottom of the trading range, we consider this only a pause as part of a longer downtrend, and do not see a reason to abandon our bearish opinion as of yet.
      Our bearish position will remain in place until prices get above the 40-week moving average, which today finished at 70.55.
Friday 10 November 2006, January Contract, Daily Chart
Open
62.45
High
62.60
Low
61.40
Close
61.54
Change
-1.52
Percent
-2.4%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
We have switched to the January contract.
      Crude moved sharply lower on Friday, falling back into the trading channel. With this, the likely future trend is a sideways movement between 58.95 and 63.60.
      We will likely change our opinion if prices move out of this trading range, although some short term traders might take advantage and by selling on the high side of this range and buying on the low, based on the assumption that the sideways trend will hold.
Thursday 09 November 2006, December Contract, Daily Chart
Open
60.00
High
61.35
Low
50.50
Close
61.16
Change
+1.33
Percent
+2.2%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Prices gapped higher on Thursday, closing out of the trading channel. With this, we have dropped our "leaning bearish" caveat on the neutral rating.
      The next hurdle for the bulls is the resistance level of 61.20.
Wednesday 08 November 2006, December Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.30
High
60.30
Low
59.10
Close
59.83
Change
+0.90
Percent
+1.5%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral, leaning bearish
      Prices stabilized today, rather than move lower as appeared to be coming on the chart. We have redrawn the upper trend line to give a more accurate reflection of the current trend channel. Look for short-term traders to sell on the upside of the channel, betting that prices will gravitate to the bottom.
      As long as prices stay in this channel, we maintain a neutral but leaning bearish position,
Tuesday 07 November 2006, December Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.90
High
60.15
Low
58.90
Close
58.93
Change
-1.09
Percent
-1.8%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral, leaning bearish
      The bulls were unable to move prices above the trend channel on Tuesday, and prices moved lower, down over 1.8%. In a down channel, a relatively safe short-term strategy would be to sell at the top of the channel on the assumption that prices will stay in the channel and move to the lower side. Because trends are more likely to continue than end, we would expect prices to move to the bottom of the channel over the next few sessions.
      We have changed our entry point for a bearish position. If prices close below the trend channel, we will change our opnion to bearish.
Monday 06 November 2006, December Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.30
High
60.55
Low
59.25
Close
60.02
Change
+0.88
Percent
+1.5%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral, leaning bearish
      Crude moved moved higher Monday, closing about the resistance level of 59.20. However, it appears that the bulls may have trouble moving out of the declining trend channel, as prices closed about halfway up the day's range near the upper limit of the trend channel.
      We will change our opinion to bearish if crude closes below the recent low of 57.05.
Friday 03 November 2006, Weekly Chart
Open
58.30
High
59.35
Low
58.30
Close
59.14
Change
-1.61
Percent
-2.7%
Medium-term Opinion: Bearish
      After weeks of significant trading ranges and lower lows, trading this week in crude was quite subdued, trading over a narrow range within the range of last week's activity. We consider this time to be a period of consolidation.
      Our bearish position will remain in place until prices get above the 40-week moving average, which today finished at 69.75.
Friday 03 November 2006, December Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.30
High
59.35
Low
58.30
Close
59.14
Change
+1.26
Percent
+2.2%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral, leaning bearish
      Crude moved moved higher Friday, up by over 2%. However, we are still in a trend channel that is edging lower, and thus our rating remains neutral leaning bearish.
      We will change our opinion to bearish if crude closes below the recent low of 57.05.
Thursday 02 November 2006, December Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.15
High
58.95
Low
57.60
Close
57.88
Change
-0.83
Percent
-1.4%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral, leaning bearish
      Crude moved lower today, although remained in the recent trend channel. As this trend channel is edging lower our rating remains neutral leaning bearish.
      We will change our opinion to bearish if crude closes below the recent low of 57.05.
Wednesday 01 November 2006, December Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.60
High
59.43
Low
57.80
Close
58.71
Change
-0.02
Percent
-0.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral, leaning bearish
      Crude moved sideways today, but the bears can take some solace in that yesterday's strong close did not lead to a jump in today's prices. We are still in a trend channel that is edging lower, and thus our rating remains neutral leaning bearish.
      We will change our opinion to bearish if crude closes below the recent low of 57.05.