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February 2007 Archive

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Wednesday 21 February 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.55
High
60.63
Low
58.30
Close
60.07
Change
+1.22
Percent
+2.1%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved higher on Wednesday, with a strong close. However, prices were held back by the 60.62 resistance level. Until we break out of the consolidation zone, we remain neutral.
Tuesday 20 February 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.40
High
58.90
Low
57.80
Close
58.85
Change
-1.01
Percent
-1.7%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved lower on Tuesday, but recovered in the afternoon to recoup some of the day's early losses. We remain neutral, but note the possible flag formation, which could foreshadow future higher prices.
Friday 16 February 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
59.60
High
60.20
Low
57.20
Close
59.86
Change
-0.77
Percent
-1.3%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude prices slipped lower this week, unable to even test the 40-week moving average. We remain neutral, although until prices get above the 40-week move average we note that this recent period of consolidation could be just a pause in a larger downtrend.
Friday 16 February 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.35
High
59.90
Low
58.35
Close
59.86
Change
+1.35
Percent
+2.3%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude moved higher on Friday, perhaps reacting from Thursday's strong close. With another strong close on Friday we may see continued higher moves on Monday. We may be in the middle of a poorly-formed flag, but we remain neutral. The 60.62 resistance level is key.
Thursday 15 February 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.88
High
58.88
Low
57.20
Close
58.51
Change
-0.06
Percent
-0.1%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Crude dropped at the outset Thursday and stayed below the recent support level of 58.00 throughout much of the session, but recovered in the afternoon to close down only slightly. The 58.00-60.62 trading area seems to be holding, and we remain neutral.
Wednesday 14 February 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.55
High
59.75
Low
58.10
Close
58.57
Change
-1.28
Percent
-2.1%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      All of Tuesday's gains were erased on Wednesday, as prices moved down over $1/bbl to 58.57. We appear to be in a tight trading pattern between 58.00 and 60.62, but with the stochastics have turns we would not be surprised to see the 58.00 level fall first. We remain neutral.
Tuesday 13 February 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.85
High
60.20
Low
58.73
Close
59.85
Change
+1.22
Percent
+2.1%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      The bears were unable to make much hay out of Monday's gap lower and low close, and prices rebounded on the day. It appears that we may have some support at 58.00 the the bears cannot overcome. We remain neutral, but note that the crossing of the stochastics could give fuel to the bears.
Monday 12 February 2007, April Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.60
High
59.85
Low
58.20
Close
58.63
Change
-2.00
Percent
-3.3%

We have switched to the April contract.
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Prices gapped lower on the opening of trading Monday, and fell throughout the day. By the close, prices were down $2/bbl. With the drop in prices, the oversold stochastics, and the potential stochastic cross, it appears prices may fall over the next few sessions. We remain neutral, but would not be surprised to see prices gravitate down to the 51.74 support level.
Friday 09 February 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
59.15
High
60.80
Low
57.25
Close
59.89
Change
+0.87
Percent
+1.5%
Medium-term Opinion: Neutral
      Prices closed above the 26-week moving average, and we have changed out opinion to neutral. With the stochastics on the upswing we don't see a strong case for lower prices any longer, and await next week's activity.
Friday 09 February 2007, March Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.65
High
60.80
Low
59.40
Close
59.89
Change
+0.18
Percent
+0.3%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      The bulls pushed prices above the critical 60.00 level, but prices fell back in the afternoon to close near the bottom of the day's range. Again there appears to be a lot of pressure, squeezing prices into a very small range, and we would expect a good sized move once prices break out of their tight range. For now, we remain neutral.
Thursday 08 February 2007, March Contract, Daily Chart
Open
57.70
High
59.80
Low
57.50
Close
59.71
Change
+2.00
Percent
+3.5%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      For the fourth consecutive session, prices have pushed right up to $60/bbl, but the bulls seem to be having a lot of trouble moving above this important resistance level. The bears inability to take advantage of yeseterday's break below the trend line leaves us feeling that there is a lot of pressure on both sides to break trading out of the recent range. However, there is little room left for maneuvering, with the 59.88 resistance level staying firm and the rising trendline at 59.25. We would be less surprised to see the downside fail, but the bulls have been persistent in keeping prices higher. We remain neutral, but expect a significant move to one side or the other when the break occurs.
Wednesday 07 February 2007, March Contract, Daily Chart
Open
59.45
High
59.84
Low
57.25
Close
57.71
Change
-1.17
Percent
-2.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      The bulls were unable to get crude above the strong resistance level of 59.88, and prices fell on Wednesday, moving out of the recent trend channel. Because of the duration of this trend, and the overbought stochastics, we would not be surprised to see a rather strong move down over the next few sessions, especially as there is no support level until 51.00.
No charts were posted on 05 or 06 Feb
Friday 02 February 2007, Weekly Chart
Open
54.95
High
59.10
Low
53.82
Close
59.02
Change
+3.60
Percent
+6.5%
Medium-term Opinion: Bearish
      Another strong week for the bulls, with prices moving up sharply and closing at the top of the week's range. Although we remain bearish, our exit would be a close above the 26-week moving average, and we are very close to that point. A close above the 59.88 resistance level would certainly put an end to our bearish opinion.
Friday 02 February 2007, March Contract, Daily Chart
Open
57.85
High
59.10
Low
57.05
Close
59.02
Change
+1.72
Percent
+3.0%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      The bears were unable to capitalize on Thursday's reversal day, and trading again moved higher, again remaining within the bounds of the rising channel, which has been continuing too long to still consider as a flag formation. For the bears, there is hope that prices will break lower because of the overbought stochastic and the difficulty of prices breaking out of a rising channel. The bulls are likely seeing strength in the fact that the gap on the chart has been filled. For now, we remain neutral.
Thursday 01 February 2007, March Contract, Daily Chart
Open
58.15
High
58.85
Low
57.10
Close
57.30
Change
-0.84
Percent
-1.4%
Near-term Opinion: Neutral
      Prices reached a new recent high, but pulled back in the afternoon after reaching the upside of the flag formation. With a loss on the day, and a close near the bottom of the day's range, some bears may consider this an opportunity to enter the market again. The stochastics are so overbought that a penetration below the flag formation may be in the cards. However, we remain neutral.